CURRENT THREAT ENVIRONMENT

The occurrence, location, size and nature of terrorist attacks, natural disasters and health emergencies are unpredictable. From a sheltering policy perspective, the first-order question is basic survival; how to protect yourself, your family/friends and your assets. The next question is how to continue and sustain a quality level of life if society or our climate has dramatically changed. Proper planning and prevention are the cornerstones in these decisions and at Hardened Structures LLC we develop specific client-oriented programs to provide these protections.

Al-Qaeda

All U.S. Intelligence agencies agree that the greatest threat to America remains the Islamist groups that espouse Global Jihad, specifically al-Qaeda and related organizations. It is al-Qaeda’s stated goal to force the imposition of an Islamist inspired utopian vision of a restored global caliphate on the world as a whole. Despite some setbacks, al-Qaeda continues to adapt and move forward with its plans to attack the US using any means at their disposal. Their overall attack methodology has evolved to address the changes to their operating environment and they have made significant efforts to align themselves with established regional terrorist groups such as Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat or GSPC and numerous criminal organizations.

Recent evidence now indicates that some of the non-Islamist groups are cooperating with al-Qaeda or other Islamist groups for their own political and religious reasons and many of these militant groups maintain representatives in the criminal, narcotic and black market worlds.

Aiding in the growing support and the interconnectivity between the divergent Islamist groups is the Muslim anger at the U.S. led invasion of Iraq and Afghanistan and the continuing western presence in Saudi Arabia. Together with the decades old animosity existing in the Muslim world over the US policy/support towards Israel, the dynamics of these emerging shifts in the international security environment present the possibility of new and unanticipated attacks on the U.S. mainland.

Global Warming and Climate Change

Global Warming and the associated Climate Changes represents the greatest present threat to man’s quality of life and our ability to sustain ourselves in the coming decades. If allowed to remain unchecked, it has the potential to catastrophically alter our planet for generations to come. The effects of Global Warming are: extreme weather, heat waves, prolonged droughts, spread of infectious diseases, floods, severe storms, wild fires, ecosystem disruptions, loss of arable land for food cultivation and food and water shortages.

Islamic Radicalization

Al-Qaeda has made significant progress in making global jihad accessible to English-speaking and Western Muslims by disseminating large amounts of violent Islamic extremist propaganda in English via the media outlets and the Internet. Al-Sahab, al-Qaeda’s official media component, released 48 videos last year and is accelerating its production to mobilize the global jihad movement.

The Internet has greatly facilitated the radicalization process, particularly in the US, by providing access to a broad and constant stream of extremist Islamic propaganda via web forums and chat rooms. This has resulted in the recruitment of radicalized American Muslim converts and extremist recruitment at schools and universities. Additionally, prisons continue to be fertile ground for extremist who exploit both a prisoner’s conversion to Islam while still in prison, as well as their socio-economic status and placement in the community upon their release.

International and domestic terrorist and state sponsors of terrorism continue to demonstrate an interest in acquiring and using chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear (CBRN) weapons. CBRN weapons are advantageous for terrorists because they cause mass causalities, mass panic, economic disruption and summon US government responses. The US has identified 21 countries, of which Iran, North Korea and China are of greatest concern, with the capability to either develop WMD systems or acquire export-controlled WMD and dual-use items and sensitive technologies. Although a nuclear terrorist attack is the least likely to occur due to the required technical expertise and challenges associated with acquiring weapons usable material, terrorist do have the capability to build, deliver and detonate a Radiological Dispersal Device (RDD) if they are able to acquire radiological material.

Domestic Groups, Criminals and Other Terrorist Groups

While al-Qaeda, its affiliates and independent Islamic jihadist groups inspired by the global jihad remain the primary threat to the US Homeland, other groups warrant attention due to their capability to launch terrorist attacks within the US. Domestic terrorists, motivated by a number of political or social issues, continue to use violence and criminal activity to further their goals. Other terrorist groups include: Hezbollah, HAMAS, Shia Extremists, White Supremacists, Black Separatists (Anarchist Black Cross Federation), Anti-Globalization, Patriot Movement and Environmental extremists.

The following Report is a product of the Defense Science Board (DSB), a Federal Advisory Committee within the Department of Defense (DOD) providing independent intelligence advice to the Secretary of Defense.

Conclusion

To develop effective strategies against these attacks it is imperative to design and build structures that can protect the client and allow them to recover in an atmosphere of changed social conditions. An integrated approach utilizing a multidisciplinary team of physical security engineers, design architects/engineers, behavioral scientists, intelligence/law enforcement specialists and planners is required to achieve this goal. Hardened Structures employs a capabilities-based planning process which identifies those building features, components and equipment required to achieve a client-specific program to implement an All-Hazard approach to building capabilities needed in the event of global warming, terrorist attack, CBRE attack, natural disasters, health emergencies and other major events.