Scenario 1:

Nuclear Detonation –

10-kiloton Improvised

Nuclear Device

Casualties	Hundreds of thousands
Infrastructure Damage	Total within radius of 0.5 to 3 miles
Evacuation/Displaced Person	100,000 in affected are seek shelter in safe areas (decontamination required for all before entering shelters) 250,000 instructed to shelter in place as plume moves across region(s) 1 million + self-evacuate from major urban areas
Contamination	Approximately 3,000 square miles
Economic Impact	Hundreds of billions of dollars
Potential for Multiple Events	No
Recovery Timeline	Years

Scenario General Description

In this scenario, terrorist members of the Universal Adversary (UA) group – represented by two radical Sunni groups: the core group El-Zahir (EZ) and the affiliated group Al Munsha’a Al Islamia (AMAI) – plan to assemble a gun-type nuclear device using Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU) stolen from a nuclear facility located in Pakistan. The nuclear device components will be smuggled into the United States. The device will be assembled near a major metropolitan center. Using a delivery van, terrorists plan to transport the device to the business district of a large city and detonate it.