Scenario 10

Natural Disaster –

Major Hurricane

Casualties	1000 fatalities, 5000 hospitalizations
Infrastructure Damage	Buildings destroyed, large amounts of debris
Evacuations/Displaced Persons	1 million evacuated 150,000 seek shelter in safe areas 200,000 homes destroyed
Contamination	From hazardous materials
Economic Impact	Billions of dollars
Potential for Multiple Events	Yes, seasonal
Recovery Timetable	Months to years

Scenario General Description

Hurricanes are intense tropical weather systems consisting of dangerous winds and torrential rains. Hurricanes often spawn tornadoes and can produce a storm surge of ocean water that can be up to 24 feet at its peak and 50 to 100 miles wide. The most destructive companion of hurricanes is the storm surge.

A typical hurricane is 400 miles in diameter and has an average forward speed of 15 miles per hour (mph) in a range of 0 to 60 mph. The average life span of a hurricane is 9 days in a range of less than 1 day to more than 12 days. Hurricanes’ highest wind speeds are 20 to 30 miles from the center. Hurricane force winds cover almost 100 miles, and gale force winds of 40 mph or more may cover 400 miles in diameter. A fully developed hurricane may tower 10 miles into the atmosphere.

A hurricane is categorized by its sustained wind intensity on a Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale that is used to estimate the potential for property damage and flooding. “Major” hurricanes are placed in Categories 3, 4, or 5 with sustained wind intensities between 111 mph to greater than 155 mph. The most dangerous potential storm would be a slow-moving Category 5 hurricane, making landfall in a highly populated area.

In this scenario, a Category 5 hurricane hits a major Metropolitan Area (MMA). Sustained winds are at 160 mph with a storm surge greater than 20 feet above normal. As the storm moves closer to land, massive evacuations are required. Certain low-lying escape routes are inundated by water anywhere from 5 hours before the eye of the hurricane reaches land.