Scenario 2

Biological Attack –

Aerosol Anthrax

Casualties	13,000 fatalities and injuries
Infrastructure Damage	Minimal other than contamination
Evacuations/Displaced Persons	25,000 seek shelter (decontamination required) 10,000 instructed to shelter in place in each city 100,000+ self-evacuate out of affected cities
Contamination	Extensive
Economic Impact	Billions of dollars
Potential for Multiple Events	Yes
Recovery Timeline	Months

Scenario General Description

Anthrax is a disease caused by Bacillus anthracis. There are three types of this disease: cutaneous anthrax, gastrointestinal anthrax, and inhalational anthrax, which develops when the bacterial spores are inhaled into the lungs. A progressive infection follows. This scenario describes a single aerosol anthrax attack in one city, but does not exclude the possibility of multiple attacks in disparate cities or time phased attacks (i.e. “reload”).

This scenario is similar to one used by the Anthrax Modeling Working Group convened by the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS). It is based on findings from the N-Process Project conducted under an interagency agreement between the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) including the Strategic National Stockpile (SNS); and Sandia National Laboratory (SNL), Albuquerque, New Mexico.