Scenario 3

Biological Disease Outbreak –

Pandemic Influenza

Casualties	At a 15% attack rate, 87,000 fatalities; 300,000 hospitalizations
Infrastructure Damage	None
Evacuation/Displaced Persons	No evacuation required; shelter in place or quarantine instructions given to certain highly affected areas
Contamination	Isolation of exposed persons
Economic Impact	$87 to $203 billion
Potential for Multiple Events	Yes, would be worldwide nearly simultaneously
Recovery Timeline	Several months

Scenario General Description

Influenza pandemics have occurred every 10 to 60 years, with three occurring in the twentieth century (1918, 1957-58 and 1967-68). Influenza pandemics occur when there is a notable genetic change (termed genetic shift) in the circulating strain of influenza. Because of this genetic shift, a large portion of the human population is entirely vulnerable to infection from the new pandemic strain. This scenario hypothetically relates what could happen during the next influenza pandemic without an effective preplanned response.